The report details trends for the global airfreight, containerized ocean traffic, rail and trucking segments. An overview of US trucking trends was provided, and includes the following information:
- Truckload tonnage growth in June rose 1.5% Y/Y, its slowest growth rate since April 2017, and continues to remain below the high-single digit growth during most of 2018. Tonnage declined M/M for the sixth month out of the last eight. While June’s growth rate was the 26th consecutive month of Y/Y growth, the 3 month moving average (3MMA) growth rate slowed to 4% (was growing 7%+ from October 2017 to June 2018). 3MMA tonnage was up 0.5% M/M.
- Spot market dry-van TL rates in July and early August were down 21% Y/Y, consistent with year-to-date trend, as the market lapped significant year-ago rate increases (rates were up 20-30% Y/Y in 1H18). After 2018 contract rates likely increased 8-11% Y/Y, our work indicates TL contract rates are likely down 0-5% Y/Y in 2019 (slowing from modest growth in early 2019), with risk to the downside as spot market rates likely remain lower Y/Y and brokers are likely offering price declines of 5-15% Y/Y (prior estimate was down 5-10%).
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