Cleveland Research releases trucking trends for August

On Aug. 19, Chris Johnson from the Cleveland Research Company updated their trend analysis for the transportation industry. The full report is available as a PDF [2.7 MB]

The report details trends for the global airfreight, containerized ocean traffic, rail and trucking segments. An overview of US trucking trends was provided, and includes the following information:

  • Truckload tonnage growth in June rose 1.5% Y/Y, its slowest growth rate since April 2017, and continues to remain below the high-single digit growth during most of 2018. Tonnage declined M/M for the sixth month out of the last eight. While June’s growth rate was the 26th consecutive month of Y/Y growth, the 3 month moving average (3MMA) growth rate slowed to 4% (was growing 7%+ from October 2017 to June 2018). 3MMA tonnage was up 0.5% M/M.
  • Spot market dry-van TL rates in July and early August were down 21% Y/Y, consistent with year-to-date trend, as the market lapped significant year-ago rate increases (rates were up 20-30% Y/Y in 1H18). After 2018 contract rates likely increased 8-11% Y/Y, our work indicates TL contract rates are likely down 0-5% Y/Y in 2019 (slowing from modest growth in early 2019), with risk to the downside as spot market rates likely remain lower Y/Y and brokers are likely offering price declines of 5-15% Y/Y (prior estimate was down 5-10%).

Cleveland Research Company (CRC) is an independent research firm headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. The company has a reputation for exceptional ground-level intelligence across the consumer, agriculture, industrial, healthcare, retail, foodservice, and technology industries.